Predictive Validity: The Key To Improving The Drug Development Process

Predictive validity refers to the ability of a tool to reliably forecast future outcomes. Throughout history, the drug development industry has been challenged to identify preclinical models that can accurately and repeatedly predict the safety and efficacy of drug candidates in humans. Despite significant scientific progress in recent decades, marked by innovations such as next-generation sequencing and CRISPR editing, it is rare to achieve success in drug development.

The drug development industry recognizes the importance of predictive validity, but Jack Scannell, the author of Eroom’s law, and a team of experts argue it is even more crucial than most believe it to be. They contend that in recent decades, drug developers have primarily relied on brute force scale to enhance success rates. Instead, they advocate for a shift in focus towards improving the predictive validity of existing preclinical models, as these models will serve as the guiding compass toward success.