Report evaluates market opportunities for emerging Osteoporosis drugs

According to a new study from Decision Resources Inc. (Waltham, MA), osteoporosis affected more than 35 million people in the world's seven major pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan) in 1999, and is now considered by the World Health Organization as second only to cardiovascular disease as a leading health care problem. The report, Osteoporosis, evaluates the considerable market opportunity awaiting emerging drugs to treat this highly prevalent condition.

Sales of osteoporosis drugs in thes markets totaled an estimated $2.8 billion in 1999. The bisphosphonate (BP) class, which includes alendronate and etidronate, captured 31% of the market; the SERM raloxifene garnered 10% of the market; and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and calcitonin products held 18% and 20% market shares, respectively. Decision Resoruces estimates that in 2009, major-market sales for osteoporosis therapies have more than tripled, reaching $9.3 billion, growing 13% annually.

Factors that fuel this growth include:

• Significant increase in the number of elderly people worldwide.
  
• Expansion in the proportion of people who receive bone densitometry scans, and new selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), next-generation BPs, and bone-formation agents (e.g., parathyroid hormome [PTH]), will expand the diagnosed and drug-treated populations.
  
• Clinical studies suggest that highly effective BPs with improved side- effect profiles (such as risedronate [Procter & Gamble's Actonel]) will contribute to physicians' growing demand for this class of antiresorptives in the near future. BPs have become the mainstay of osteoporosis therapy and are poised to dominate the market during Decision Resources' 10-year forecast period. In addition, clinical trials are studying BPs combined with other therapies (HRT, a SERM, or PTH) and are expected to provide important guidelines for specialists seeking more-optimal treatment regimens for osteoporosis. Some specialists predict that up to 35–80% of patients will receive these combination regimens during the next five to ten years, making them a significant contributor to the growing osteoporosis market.
  
• Bone anabolic agents (such as NPS Pharmaceuticals' ALX1-11 PTH analogue and Eli Lilly's Forteo) will be a welcome addition to the osteoporosis treatment arsenal. The report estimates that sales of PTH will grow dramatically (28% per year) between 2004 and 2009.

Osteoporosis is part of Mosaic, one of six Pharmacor services that evaluate the commercial potential of drugs in research and development.

For more information, contact Frank Sama of Decision Resources at 781-487-3753 or sama@dresources.com.

Edited by Jim Pomager
Assistant Editor, Pharmaceutical Online
Source: Decision Resources Inc.

For another perspective on the osteoporosis drug market, read OTC products gain share of osteoporosis market